(ETF custody + custody-firm cold storage) ÷ exchange reserves. The cleanest single measure of whether institutional demand is structurally absorbing XRP off the sell-side. Thresholds: <0.1 = supply-abundance · 0.5 = institutional bid comparable to exchanges · 1.0 = supply-shock regime (BTC crossed this in late 2024). XRP today: —.

Day-over-day change in FXRP supply. Positive (green) = net minting — XRP newly locked on Flare. Negative (red) = net redemptions — XRP unlocked back to XRPL. The line shows total FXRP supply.

Bars = average across venues per UTC day, annualized; overlays = OKX (purple), Bitget (blue), Hyperliquid (coral). BitMEX is in the average until its XRP perp settled on 9/2/2026. Contrarian indicator: extremely positive = longs crowded (often local top); extremely negative = shorts crowded (often local bottom). >+20% or <-20% annualized = extreme.

Weekly Commitments of Traders, Traders-in-Financial-Futures report, futures only (50,000 XRP per contract; Tuesday positions, published Friday). Asset managers = pensions, insurers, ETF hedgers — the institutional long-only book. Leveraged funds = hedge funds and CTAs. Rising asset-manager net longs alongside ETF creations = institutional demand confirmed on two rails; leveraged funds heavily short into a rising price = squeeze fuel.

How to read it. Active addresses and payment transfers (Coin Metrics, daily since 2019, log scale) are the ledger's own usage; RLUSD on XRPL (DefiLlama) is stablecoin liquidity settling on the ledger, the cleanest "utility" line here because it cannot be inflated by cheap spam. What the history says: over 2019–2026, activity surges were coincident with price moves, not ahead of them — a 7-day average at 1.3x the 90-day average was followed by a higher price 30 days later only 39% of the time (base 45%), and the late-Aug-2026 spike to 360K addresses/day sat on top of the Aug 19–20 rally, then faded. Quiet stretches (≤0.7x) slightly preceded gains. Since Sep 2024 surges have looked better (63% up in 30 days) but on 7 episodes. So: treat a rising baseline (yearly medians: 6K addresses in 2019, 33K in 2024, 45K in 2026; transfers 33K → 488K) as the adoption story, and treat spikes as confirmation of a move, not a lead. Activity is reported in the digest as context and is not scored.

Not the same as network activity. This is turnover on exchanges (Coin Metrics reported spot volume, all venues, daily since 2019); the chart above is usage of the ledger itself. They can diverge for weeks. What the history says: volume drying up (7-day avg ≤ 0.6x the 90-day avg) preceded a higher price 30 days later 59% of the time vs a 46% base over 2019–2026 and 58% vs 42% since Sep 2024 — consistent in both regimes, so it scores +1 in the bias line. Volume expansion flipped sign between regimes (bearish over the full history, bullish since late 2024), so it is reported as context only. A big green day on below-average volume has been a poor entry (31% higher 30 days later since 2024). MVRV (market value ÷ realized value) below 1 means the average holder is underwater; readings ≤ 1 preceded gains modestly (54% vs 46%).

Change in labeled exchange wallet balances per day. Positive (red) = XRP arriving at exchanges = likely distribution. Negative (green) = XRP leaving exchanges = accumulation. Large spikes have historically preceded short-term price moves.

How to read the table. A highlighted row is active as of the last daily close. Signals / episodes: signal days, and how many separate occasions they came from (a streak counts once) — episodes is the honest sample size. Up 1d / 3d / 7d: how often the close was higher that many days after the signal close. Median 3d: the typical result, half were better and half worse. +15% in 3d: how often price touched +15% at any point in the next three days — the spike-catch rate. Typical worst dip / best high: the median lowest low and highest high over the next three days, measured from the signal close — use the dip to size a stop and the high to set a realistic target. Compare every row with the baseline row: a setup only means something where it beats "any day". Statistics use signals since Feb 2025 when there are at least 8 of them, otherwise all history.

How to read it. Implied volatility is the annualized move the options market is pricing; divide by 19 for the expected one-day move and by 7 for one week (67% ≈ 3.5% a day, 9.5% a week). Implied well above realized = traders are paying up for a move (event risk or fear); implied at or below realized while the market is quiet = options are cheap, the same condition the compression setup looks for. Put/call open interest below ~0.6 = positioning leans to upside calls, above ~1 = hedged or bearish; extremes are contrarian, the change matters more than the level. Skew = put IV minus call IV; positive means downside protection is bid. The biggest open strikes often act as magnets into expiry. Snapshots accrue daily from 9/18/2026; options are not scored in the digest until there is history.

Price-neutral view: each band is one fund's XRP holdings over time. Stack height = total XRP absorbed by spot XRP ETFs. Grows with inflows, shrinks with redemptions. XRP price overlay (yellow) lets you see absorption pace vs price.

Derived from daily share-count changes × NAV — actual creations and redemptions, not a volume proxy. Positive = new shares minted to meet demand (XRP bought); negative = redemptions. Yellow line = cumulative net inflows. Estimates; gaps between share readings attribute multi-day flow to a single day.